By Blake Buscemi
With MLB spring training approaching in the next couple of weeks, teams are starting to make roster moves and are deciding who will be attending big-league camp. This process makes you consider a couple things: who are these players and which ones have a chance to make an impression at the big-league level this year? Here are five prospects I believe you need to watch this season and could have a significant impact on their respective clubs.
5. Ian Anderson, Starting Pitcher, Atlanta Braves
A New York native and Shenendehowa High School graduate, Ian Anderson has been on many scouts’ radars for quite a while. He has dominated the minors since he was drafted third overall in 2016, pitching to a lifetime 2.91 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 377 innings pitched. His MLB debut last year was even more impressive, where he posted a 1.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a K/9 over 11 in 32.1 innings. While this is a small sample size, Anderson has shown that these numbers could be sustainable. He placed in the 95th percentile in xERA, an advanced statistic that gauges how well a pitcher is performing compared to his actual ERA, the 99th percentile in xSLG against, which uses exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed to determine the quality of contact and at-bat that was made against a given pitcher, and the 95th percentile in xwOBA against, which takes each ball in play and assigns it an expected outcome, therefore, projecting how effective the pitcher will be in the future. Together, these all statistics indicate that Anderson will likely be able to continue to be a force in the Braves rotation this year as they backup his normal statline, showing that his regular season performance last year likely was not a fluke.
Originally signed by the Phillies as an international free agent back in 2015, Sanchez was dealt to Miami in the J.T. Realmuto deal a couple years ago. Few pitchers at any level of baseball can match the combination of pure stuff and control that he has, shown in his lifetime 1.7 BB/9 ratio in five minor league seasons paired with a fastball that can reach 100 MPH as a starter with tremendous sink. He possesses a plus-plus changeup as well, which many scouts think can be more effective than his fastball long-term. In his short showing in the big leagues last year, he only gave up 6 runs in his first 5 starts before a couple shaky outings towards the end of the year, which is very rare and impressive to accomplish a feat like this as a rookie. Like Anderson, he placed at the top of the league in statistics like xERA, xSLG, and xwOBA, implying that he did not just get lucky last year and he should be able to take over as the first true Marlins ace since Jose Fernandez.
3. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Third Baseman, Pittsburgh Pirates
The son of former major leaguer Charlie Hayes, Ke’Bryan is looking like he could be even better than his father. After putting up good but not phenomenal offensive numbers over his minor league career, Hayes had had an offensive surge in his short tenure with the Pirates; he slashed .376/.442/.682 with 5 home runs and only a 21% strikeout rate, putting him atop the MLB leaderboards in numerous offensive categories. In addition to his offensive breakout, he is also regarded as one of the best defensive third baseman in the game, where some scouts give him as high as a 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He has phenomenal range along with a great arm that showed in his major league debut, where he had 4 Defensive Runs Saved and recorded 3 Outs Above Average in only 198 innings; these are both advanced defensive metrics that measure how affective a fielder really is. Hayes looks like a top breakout candidate in 2021 and could eventually develop into a franchise-type player if all goes right.
2. MacKenzie Gore, Starting Pitcher, San Diego Padres
MacKenzie Gore is the consensus top pitching prospect in all of baseball, and for good reason. He has arguably 4 plus pitches in his arsenal that he can throw for strikes, which include a fastball, curveball, changeup, and slider. He’s also proven that he can absolutely dominate professional hitters, posting a 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 12 strikeouts per 9 innings in 2019. Besides his minor struggles in 2018 while adjusting to higher-level competition, he has done nothing but mow down hitters over his entire career, shown with his Gatorade Player of the Year award back in 2017. The only thing holding Gore back at this point is his team’s current pitching situation; San Diego recently added Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove to their rotation this offseason, so there is a chance that the Friars decide to hold Gore in the minors for at least a little while longer. I still have him on this list because I believe that his stuff is that good and he will likely perform too well in the minors to be kept there for very long if that is how San Diego decides to go about the situation. Whenever Gore ends up getting the call, he should be an instant force in the Padres’ starting rotation.
Jarred Kelenic is a special talent; he hasn’t made his MLB debut yet and the Mets are already regretting trading him back in 2018 in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. He is as safe of a bet to be a productive major leaguer as anybody else in the minors right now; I would give him a 70-grade hit tool and a 60-grade power tool on the 20-80 scale, which is among the best in the minors as well. His .290/.366/.516 slashline along with his 29 home runs, 41 doubles, and 35 steals in 663 minor league at bats all point to a future star in the making. He has also been praised by scouts for his arm strength and fielding ability, which will likely make him a rare 5-tool player at the highest level. Kelenic will probably start the year in the minors due to service time concerns, but once he gets the call a few weeks into the season, he should be in the running for rookie of the year right away and could easily turn into the face of the Mariners within a couple seasons.
