This should come as no surprise but the NL Cy Young race is completely convoluted with this truncated season. Typically over the course of a 6-month, 30+ start season a couple pitchers will separate themselves from the pack in the latter months considering it is truly a marathon. With only 11 or 12 starts to make a case, some pitchers that may have had difficulty maintaining their incredible start, never actually fall off.
Over the past two seasons, Jacob deGrom had solid but not spectacular starts to the season only to become nearly unhittable in the second half – particularly September. Prior to that, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw had made a habit of separating themselves in the second half.
Right now there are six pitchers that have a compelling case for the award. With just one start remaining, it will probably take seven shutout innings to truly separate from the pack and that’s not easy. Even on his absolute best nights, deGrom can give up a solo shot to a player like Andrew Knapp or Nate Lowe.
Let’s get down to it. Here’s the six candidates and I’ll explain why there’s no clear front runner.
Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds
Key Stats: 4-4 record, 1.80 ERA, 65.0 IP, 88 K, 0.82 WHIP, .161 AVG
Analysis: Bauer has become one of the most polarizing figures in baseball as he’s become the first player to fully embrace the digital era head-on. He has his own media platform, Watch Momentum, where he breaks down videos, produces vlog content about the daily grind of the season and has dinner conversations with some of the best players in the game. For that I commend him. I also like that he calls other people out for being phony such as commissioner Rob Manfred and the Houston Astros. Dallas Braden made a great point on Starting 9 podcast last week, saying that MLB has tried to suffocate players like Bauer who embrace their own content because if more players like him sprout up it threatens the monopoly they have on monetizing baseball content and then it hurts their bottom line. And that’s what they truly care about – not growing the popularity of the sport.
In any event, Bauer has been amazing this season. His 1.80 ERA is second in the league but the underlying stats are not as dominant. He’s sixth in strikeout rate, seventh in fWAR, eighth in fFIP and ninth in FIP. Those are numbers that will matter. So while he’s been great in run prevention, he hasn’t put up the complete well-rounded package that a couple others have had. The last start of his season will be Wednesday against the Brewers. He allowed four runs against them in his previous start. Either way, the 29-year-old will enter free agency as the hottest pitcher on the market and will command a salary north of $30 million per year. He’s an interesting character, as he has stated he will strictly pitch on one-year deals to maximize his career earnings.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
Key Stats: 4-0 record, 1.77 ERA, 56.0 IP, 83 K, 0.95 WHIP, .158 AVG
Analysis: Unless you are a die-hard Milwaukee Brewers fan or work for MLB Network, you probably hadn’t heard of Burnes until last week when he qualified for the ERA title and also took the lead in the ERA race over Bauer and deGrom. He had pitched in relief the first several appearances of the season which is why his innings were low but now he’s been their most dominant starter.
Earlier this season, someone mentioned that if a pitcher that nobody has heard of won the Cy Young, would it de-legitimize it to baseball fans? It’s a fair question when the winner is coming off a season with a 8.82 ERA. He’s already eclipsed his previous career high in innings. But Burnes is in the thick of the race after allowing just 1 ER over 23.0 IP in September. He struck out at least seven batters in six consecutive outings and hasn’t allowed more than five hits in any of them. The Brewers haven’t announced the rotation for the final series but his last start will be against the Cardinals. He faced them once this season and he struck out 10 over 4.2 IP with 1 ER. I re-watched that outing, he worked out of jam-after-jam with strikeouts, but his pitch count got elevated so he was removed with the bases loaded in the fifth. His stuff is very nasty. Looking at his numbers last year he was incredibly unlucky (.414 BABIP, 38.6% HR/FB) and he’s gotten much tougher in big spots this year (80.6% strand rate). I think if the season ends today, he’s the winner considering he has a little bit of everything that voters look for. Additionally, he’s first in FIP and second in K rate so his resume is pretty full. If he dominates his last start, I think he comes away with it.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
Key Stats: 4-2 record, 2.14 ERA, 63.0 IP, 94 K, 0.92 WHIP, .184 AVG
Analysis: I am a huge fan of deGrom, I love his intensity, his consistently and his accountability. As a scout, I love his athleticism and how he’s truly a complete pitcher. Somehow he’s added five MPH to his fastball since 2016 – when he was already a lights-out pitcher. He’s the two-time reigning winner of this award and I think if it was a full season he would be the winner considering his track record of going 30+ starts and getting stronger. IF he wins, he becomes the third pitcher to win back-to-back-to-back awards, joining Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson – which would put him in truly elite company. I’ve watched all of his starts and it was strange when he left against the Phillies last week having allowing 3 runs over two innings. The Mets said it was a hamstring issue but he made his next start and struck out 14 over 7 innings against the Rays, so who knows. Before he allowed the three runs, his ERA was 1.65 and he was leading the NL. That made it jump to 2.09 and now it stands at 2.14 after allowing two runs last night. But here’s an example of how unlucky he’s been. He walked the leadoff batter on a borderline 3-2 pitch that was clearly a strike after looking at it on gamecast. So instead of one out, nobody on there’s no-out and one on. The next batter hits a double to left center for a clean hit but the base runner fell rounding third. It would’ve been an easy out but Amed Rosario dropped the ball allowing the runner to make it back safely. The next batter hit a sac fly to center to score the run. On any other team, he’s probably out of that unscathed. And that’s what deGrom has had to overcome for the past several seasons and that’s not even getting into the historic lack of run support he’s received or the horrific bullpen. So everything he’s done, he’s had to achieve in spite of his organization. Even with that, he’s regarded as the best pitcher in baseball since 2018. His stuff is filthy, as you can see on Pitching Ninja every outing. Last night he struck out the side in the first inning on 10 pitches with all three strikeouts coming on 100 MPH fastballs. deGrom is sensational and even if he doesn’t win this year, he’s likely to be back in the conversation next year but I’m pulling for him because of the story that it would become and the attention he would receive. His last start will be against the Washington Nationals, who will not have anything to play for. deGrom leads the league in strikeouts, fWAR and xFIP, second in FIP and fifth in ERA. Clearly, voters are passed voting on wins and losses which has been a huge boost for his career. If he can go out and throw seven shutout against the Nationals, it would become fair to ask if you overlook the slightly higher ERA in favor of the other dominant numbers.
Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres
Key Stats: 3-1 record, 2.07 ERA, 65.1 IP, 89 K, 0.87 WHIP, .166 AVG
Analysis: He’s another pitcher that has come from nowhere. The 28-year-old compiled ERA of 4.57 and 4.07 over the past two years. Somehow he’s turned his game up several notches in 2020. His numbers are staggering in all regards. His last outing was a gem on Sunday against the Mariners in which he struck out 11 over six innings allowing one run. He’s striking out a lot of batters (4th in K rate), limiting base runners (3rd in WHIP) and cut down on his walks from previous years. The .166 AVG (3rd in MLB) is clear that hitters don’t enjoy facing him. His last start will come against the Giants on Friday. He’s allowed just two runs over his last three starts which has put him back into this race and probably ahead of Darvish. The only knock against him is that he’s not leading in any of the categories.
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
Key Stats: 7-0 record, 1.96 ERA, 55.0 IP, 50 K, 1.05 WHIP
Analysis: Now here’s where traditional fans and advanced stats fans deviate. If you look at the first two stats, it tells the story of the runaway NL Cy Young award winner. But when you dig deeper, it tells a different story. He certainly has been good at winning baseball games, but he’s 19th in K rate, 18th in WHIP and 17th in xFIP which shows he hasn’t exactly been the most dominant pitcher. He does lead in bWAR, but that really only values ERA and ERA+, so most sabr fans don’t value that like fWAR – which he’s eighth in. Fried also missed 10 days with lower back spasms, so I was assuming he would fall shy on innings, but then he bounced back with five innings and allowing just one run in his return at Citi Field on Friday. He will start again on Wednesday against Sixto Sanchez. If he only goes five innings again, it’s hard for me to see him winning the award that rewards dominance and durability.
Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
Key Stats: 7-3 record, 2.22 ERA, 69.0 IP, 88 K, 1.00 WHIP
Analysis: If not for the incredible strikeout numbers, I’m not sure he would even be in this conversation after his last year. Allowing four runs in his second to last start of the season should probably eliminate his name from the discussion, but he is still tied for first in fWAR with deGrom at 2.7. They reward pitchers for having great strikeout numbers and low walks. I believe he has benefited this season because it is pretty well-known that he doesn’t like the crowd being tough on him. With no crowd, that’s one less issue to deal with as a pitcher. He’s really been outstanding over the past calendar year, after struggling mightily in 2018 and the first half of 2019. His August was incredible as he was 5-0, he allowed just four runs over 33.0 IP with 40 strikeouts but September has brought him down to earth (1-2 record, 3.46 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). His last start will come on Friday against the crosstown rival White Sox. He will need to throw shutout baseball just to be in the conversation.
Conclusion: There’s still one start left. I think that the easiest result would be for the guys with the ERAs in 1.70-1.90 range to either throw lights-out or get hit around and give up runs. If there’s an ERA in the 1.60s I think that means that person wins so I can see Burnes end up around 1.65 and he will win. Same can be said for Bauer. The other option would be Burnes and Bauer to end up closer to 2.00 which would justify voting for deGrom, who very clearly has the peripheral numbers to win. For deGrom to win, he just needs to have a great outing on Saturday to get down to 2.00 territory and then have Bauer, Burnes and Lamet finish in the same vicinity. If the season ended today, as I said, I think Burnes has the best rounded resume.
