Every year around this time we think we have a good idea who will get drafted in June. The reality is that there’s no way to predict the future; players performances are wildly unpredictable and that’s not even factoring things out of their control.
For example, I thought a player like Angelo Navetta would have gotten drafted had he performed exceptionally well in 2018. All he did was slug .616 with 49 RBI, showing that his 2016 season was no fluke and he is every bit as talented offensively as he is defensively. Still, he wasn’t drafted. Don’t tell me his size is a deterrent, because there were position players under 6’0″ drafted across the nation. Then there’s Matt Hogan, who I thought just needed to prove he was healthy to be considered a pro player. All he did was win the coveted Carl Yastrzemski Award and light up the radar gun with a bunch of 90s and tape measure HRs. He wasn’t drafted, but he is at Vanderbilt University. While players can do everything in their power, sometimes there’s just other regions of the country that get favored. Sometimes unsignable kids get drafted just because teams don’t have the roster spots in the minor leagues.
To be fair, I did accurately call Logan O’Hoppe, Frankin Parra, Reiss Knehr, Aaron Pinto, Bobby Honeyman Teddy Cillis and John Rooney as players that should get drafted, but the moral of the story is you can’t be 100 percent certain.
Joey Savino pitching at SunTrust Park in Atlanta pic.twitter.com/Pw27hRhiiU
— Axcess Baseball LI (@axcessbaseball) September 29, 2018
I’m going to go over a few players that have recently made some noise in terms of getting drafted in 2019. There’s other players with a shot, but I do think these are the ones that have made the best cases recently. We’ve discussed Jason Diaz, Tim McHugh and Max Nielsen in previous articles and that remains true.
SS Jake Lazzaro (Oceanside)
As time goes on, Jake is making it more clear that he’s the player with the highest floor of any 2019 graduate on Long Island. That differs from the highest ceiling, because I certainly think Tim McHugh and Jason Diaz have an infinite potential, but Lazzaro is the safest bet to either be an All-Conference player at the Division-I level or be a professional player with a lengthy career.
Here’s what Lazzaro brings to the table:
- A physically mature body that has grown from 5’9 as a freshman to 6’2 as a senior.
- He plays a premium position (shortstop) and plays it well which means he is likely to stick there or be a premium second baseman based on team need at the next level.
- He was the only player in New York to be named First Team All-State in both baseball and football. He led football to a county championship last year (14 TDs as wide receiver) and baseball was the No. 1 seed before being upset by Massapequa. He gave up basketball to focus on baseball.
- He is mature beyond his years, having already dealt with the unexpected loss of his father.
- Elite speed (6.5 60-yard dash)
- Power from the left-side of the plate (.576 SLG)
- Plate discipline (.510 OBP)
- Instincts of a professional player
The kid has done nothing to hurt himself and in my mind, is the safest bet of all the players on Long Island to have a successful professional career.
RHP Joey Savino (Connetquot)
Savino has overtaken the other pitchers in the class in my opinion, because there’s no asterisk next to his name. He checks all the boxes and I think we will see him put up some ridiculous numbers this year. He really flew under the radar until the middle of his junior year, but since then he has really consistently risen his stock. Last month he pitched at Fenway Park and SunTrust Park for various events. He’s no longer a secret having dominated at every step of the way this season. I am especially impressed with his composure, he really has no fear on the mound. He has the size (6’4″ 195 lbs), velocity (88-8 MPH), command (74-pitch complete game in postseason), offspeed pitch (slider) and arm action to translate to the next level. I think we are looking at a star in the making.
OF Kyle Rausch (Longwood)
Like Lazzaro, he is a two-sport star that also is terrific on the gridiron. He is a running back for the Lions and it translates into his play on the baseball field. He is extremely intense and plays the game in high-gear at all time. He dives for fly balls and he never loafs around the bases. Manny Machado was a hot topic for his comments about choosing not to hustle, and it is quite the opposite of Rausch. He also possesses strong character, evident by his decision to commit to Navy, meaning he is obligated to serve in the military following his graduation. He will be the biggest bat in Longwood’s lineup this season. I think another huge season could mean hearing his name on draft draft.
RHP David Falco (Center Moriches)
As I mentioned in my previous prospect article in September, I have yet to watch Falco in a game but he was a pivotal member of Center Moriches’ Class B title winning team. He is a fully developed 6’4″ and has touched 94 MPH on the mound. I think if you draft him with the intention of making him a lights-out professional reliever you will not be disappointed. He has the chance to touch the upper 90s in another 2-3 years.
RHP Doug Goodwin (Smithtown East)
Goodwin is a player that has generated some buzz since this summer. He is part of Gregg Sarra’s vaunted pitching staff on the HDMH Titans and probably the least amount of respect although he is right there in terms of talent. He had an outstanding season for Smithtown East, and this summer I watched him pitch at PBR’s New York State games at Binghamton University. He touched 89, he sat in the upper 80s. He reminds me of Aaron Glickstein on the mound; very composed, very in control of his mechanics. I expect another lights-out season this year. He’s been on varsity since 9th grade, so he is pitching against competition that might not even challenge him in many cases. He has command of a curveball at 78-81 and his change up at 78 MPH. Standing at 5’11”, it will be tough for him to stand out but he has at least put himself in the conversation. He’s just behind the next name on the list.
RHP Roman Dorosh (Sachem East)
We’ve written extensively about Dorosh in the past. Not much has changed since the summer time when his fastball topped at 92 and he committed to Jacksonville. I am a huge fan of Dorosh, I think he is a pro-pitcher. The only question will be how does he maintain his velocity deep into games and deep into the season. He proved last year that the cold weather is no deterrent to him. A lot of times in the past we have seen a pitcher touch 90-95 MPH during the summer and the expectation is that the fastball will sit there on Opening Day. That is rarely the case and often times it causes the crosscheckers to shy away. Dorosh touched 90 in the freezing cold on March 25 last year. There’s no reason to think he won’t do it again, but the next threshold will be whether he can do that on the 105th pitch of a game the way the best pitchers do. Pitching in League 1 presents some challenges that the small-school pitchers don’t have to face. For example, in 2017 Brian Morrell wasn’t really challenged until the Long Island Championship. Dorosh will be tested right away with teams like Ward Melville, Longwood and Pat-Med. I think he will have no issue, but that’s why we play the games. My instinct tells me Dorosh will get drafted and he will follow the path of Ben Brown and Franklin Parra.
