What a chaotic week. What started off as a beautiful Monday with every game being played in 70 degree weather quickly turned into a slog that featured suspended games due to the weather on Tuesday, only one game being played on Wednesday, a productive Thursday, a cold/windy day on Friday and a complete washout today.
Plenty of action occurred when the games were actually able to be played and here’s my biggest takeaways so far:
- The biggest surprise so far has been No. 17 Bay Shore coming out of nowhere to shock both No. 1 Smithtown East and No. 9 Connetquot. Both of these teams feature a myriad of Division-I and II players that have excelled against elite competition for years. Smithtown East threw their Hofstra-commit at them and the Marauders came away with a 7-4 victory on Monday. After the suspended games resumed on Thursday, they faced Connetquot holding on to a 1-0 lead. The last inning was the equivalent of hanging from a building by one finger as Jared West loaded the bases with the potential winning run in scoring position. Luke Quinlan hit a chopper to SS that was fielded and fired across the infield to nab him by the slightest of margins. The call certainly could’ve gone either way but the point is a No. 17 seed rarely has the resiliency of this team. To pull off an upset is one thing, but to continue that for another game is even more impressive. All the credit in the world goes to Mike Herbst who has a team that has been consistently overlooked in League 3, they snuck into the postseason without the elite-level player that every other playoff team has and they shocked everyone. For those old enough to remember, Herbst was a key piece of the 1998 Longwood team that snuck into the postseason with a 9-9 record and wound up running the table to a New York State championship. Now, they are still a way from that and will need to beat Connetquot again to get into the final 4, they have already impressed many people. Outstanding job by them. They will have their hands full with Joey Savino likely to be standing 60’6″ away from their batters on Monday. I will say he was absolutely dynamic on Monday against Newfield. His 73-pitch complete game was flat-out impressive. He is one of the better pitchers on the island right now with a fastball (89 MPH) that is complemented by a devastating slider.
- No. 2 West Islip and No. 3 Commack appear to be on a collision course for a rematch in the Suffolk County AA finals. Last year was wildly entertaining, it went to a third game and Commack was taken to the absolute edge by a relentless Lions offense. This team, sans Axcess League MVP Greg Tsouprakos, it has been even better. They cruised past Walt Whitman and Ward Melville and are well-rested for their upcoming match against Sachem East. It’s not going to be a walk in the park, even for a team riding a 16-game winning streak (20-2 overall) dating back to April 12 as they are. I watched Sachem East yesterday and they possess a lot of the same characteristics as West Islip does and with Roman Dorosh on the mound, they have a chance to beat anyone. This that being said, West Islip will have the advantage of being home, they are red-hot and Mike LaDonna has been outstanding this season on the mound, as well as Bobby DiCapua–who has won his last six starts. Sachem will need to bring the bats; that top-of-the-order with Dan Palermo, Dorosh, Don Wille, Craig Leonard and Dylan Stalzer has been extremely dangerous. Fordham-commit Jake Guercio and Co. will have their hands full with a hungry team like the Arrows. As for Commack (19-3), they will face Longwood who has a chip on their shoulder after being given the No. 6 seed in the playoffs despite winning League 1. The Lions are 17-5 and are riding the momentum of a dramatic 6-5 victory over Hills East on Friday. Trailing 5-3 in the sixth inning and facing elimination, Kyle Rausch crushed a go-ahead three-run home run to give them the lead. They are battle-tested, having endured a grueling League 1 schedule. They are really a complete team. They rely on a pitching staff that features three college arms (Jared Vanderhoof, Danny Owens and Jon Holmstock). I expect them to go with Owens who started their playoff game last Monday and he should be opposed by Jake Krzemienski. Two refined arms, two gritty offenses. It should be a great match up. The challenge for Longwood will be how to navigate a red-hot lineup that has put up 24 runs in two playoff games. League 2 MVP Tim McHugh is no secret, (.490 AVG, 6 HR) neither is Krzemienski, but the Cougars offense is far deeper than that. Leadoff man Joe Pellegrino has been a spark plug atop the lineup, Drew Silverman hit a massive two-run bomb off Matt Hogan last Tuesday and Sean Coveny has been outstanding since his pinch-hit three-run bomb against Connetquot last month. Dave Massa hit one off the top of the fence on Thursday. They’re just a very talented team.
- No. 12 North Babylon is the second lowest seed remaining in the tournament. They pulled off a dramatic comeback on Thursday over Lindenhurst with two runs in the bottom of the seventh inning off Krishnam Patel. They resurrected their season after suffering three consecutive shutouts earlier this month. They are dangerous because they are a young team that is playing with house money. They weren’t expected to be here but they have that attitude where they have nothing to lose and with a Preseason All-Long Island player like Brian Primm on the mound on Monday, they have a shot against No. 4 Eastport-South Manor, who will be throwing Ryan Foran. Several people that I have spoke with in that league said Foran is the best pitcher in the league. I watched him last month against Hills West and I came away very impressed. He 80-83 MPH but he has command in-and-out of the strike zone and has a deadly hook. Foran is a tough customer but the Bulldogs are playing with that loose, reckless abandon that could be a dangerous mix.
- I was shocked to see Ward Melville get eliminated in the first week of the postseason. I really thought they had the best mix of pitching, offense, defense, mental toughness and coaching. Additionally, they typically NEVER lose at home. I just think playing a team for the fifth time of the season meant Sachem East negated their advantage. Max Nielsen really struggled and he told me after the game it was the “worst game of his life.” You could tell he was very frustrated and it’s never good to see a pitcher be on an island like that. They will be graduating Logan Doran, Kyle Rafferty, Drake Eggleston and Chris Buehler and that’s another reason I picked them. I thought that group would be too tough to defeat.
- I think I’m going to go out and predict West Islip to win the whole thing. Aside from their ludicrous hot streak, they also have the “even-year” trend in their favor. They won the Long Island Championship in 2014 and 2016 and look poised to return. I remember doing a season preview on them in March of last year and Coach Rush told me that the class of 2019 might be the BEST class he’s ever had and that’s saying something! They have certainly had some unbelievable groups. That 2019 core of Mike LaDonna and Anthony Cinquemani has matured quick.
